Swingshot Mystery Cache
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Difficulty:
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Terrain:
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Size: 
(small)
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Please note off-set to coordinates and hint were changed on August 16 2013 AND CORRECTED ON OCTOBER 24 This it to help the cache survive future medium-level floods
The cache is not at the above co-ordinates, but it’s not too far away. This is a popular spot on summer weekends, so the hiding place is set back from the busiest parts.
The three-way duel (treble ?) is a well known puzzle, where you are usually just asked to state A’s best strategy for his first shot.
Here you also have to figure that out, but having done so you will need to calculate a couple of probabilities to get the final cache location.
The puzzle is as follows:
Asha, Buddy and Caesar have an argument and decide to fight a three-way duel to settle the matter.
The rules of the competition are as follows:
They will take turns to fire. As Asha hits her target only 50% of the time, she will have the first shot. Being more reliable with a 75% strike rate Buddy will go second, and as the best shot, scoring 90% of the time Caesar will go third.
The survivors will continue to take their shots in this order until only one of them is left. Assume that any hit results in death.
Assuming that each of them applies the strategy that will give them the best chance of winning, the probability (correct to three decimal places) that Asha is the ultimate winner =0.AAA, and the probability that Caesar wins = 0.CCC, then the cache is at
S 27 12.(AAA-095)
E 152 48.(CCC+356)
For example, if it was as simple as Prob{Asha wins} = .500 and
Prob{Caesar wins} = .900 the final location would be
S 27 12.(500-095)=12.405
E 152 48.(900+356)=49.356
It isn’t quiet that simple, of course, but you get the idea.
You can check your answers for this puzzle on GeoChecker.com.
Additional Hints
(Decrypt)
Va n ovt zhygv-gehaxrq gerr, nobhg urnq-urvtug
Treasures
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