The butterfly effect is a term used in chaos theory to describe how small changes to a seemingly unrelated thing or condition (also known as an initial condition) can affect large, complex systems. The term comes from the suggestion that the flapping of a butterfly's wings in South America could affect the weather in Texas, meaning that the tiniest influence on one part of a system can have a huge effect on another part.
Taken more broadly, the butterfly effect is a way of describing how, unless all factors can be accounted for, large systems like the weather remain impossible to predict with total accuracy because there are too many unknown variables to track.
Origins in Weather Prediction
The concept of the butterfly effect is attributed to Edward Norton Lorenz, a mathematician and meteorologist, who was one of the first proponents of chaos theory. Lorenz was running global climate models on his computer one day and, hoping to save himself some time, ran one model from the middle rather than the beginning. The two weather predictions, one based on the entire process, including initial conditions, and another based on a portion of the data, starting with the process already part way completed, diverged drastically. Lorenz, along with most scientists of his time, had expected the computer models to be identical regardless of where they started. Instead, tiny, unpredictable variations caused the two models to differ. Intrigued by the results, Lorenz began creating a mathematical explanation that would show the sensitive dependence of large, complex systems like the weather. Sensitive dependence means that the development of the system depends on a wide number of factors. To simplify his findings, Lorenz coined the butterfly explanation that has since become so widely known.
Other Systems
The butterfly effect applies to systems beyond weather; indeed, any complicated system may be vulnerable to seemingly small factors. For example, the travel of asteroids in the solar system can be difficult to predict. This is because the paths of asteroids can be affected by many different gravitational pulls throughout the solar system, including the gravity of the sun, of planets, of moons, and even other asteroids. In human behavior, it may be possible for small initial changes to render behavior unpredictable. For example, the loved ones of someone who has committed suicide are often left wondering what could have caused the death. They might agonize over the myriad small details they did not see, but which could have predicted the suicide. The butterfly effect might suggest that a huge range of experiences, dispositions, and genetic, physical, and emotional factors were too many to account for in the person's actions.
At the listed coords find the "Excelsior Reserve" sign. The cache can be found at:
S 33 45.ABC
E 151 00.DEF
Where:
A = (2,1,2)(3,1,3)(2,6,2)(1,1,4)
B = (5,2,2)(5,3,3)(3,4,2)(1,2,4)
C = (1,1,6)(2,1,1)(1,1,2)
D = (4,8,1)(2,2,2)(5,1,1)(6,5,4)(6,8,3)
E = (2,1,2) (1,1,8) (3,7,5) (4,3,5) (2,2,1)
F = (1,1,8)(2,1,2)(1,2,7)
In order to unravel the mysteries of the Butterfly Effect? you will need to collect the random clues in each of the caches in the series.
All of the caches in the Butterfly Effect? series are located in close vicinity to established MTB trails that have been identified by the Baulkham Hills Shire Council. These little known but wonderful trails take you into many of the great forest areas in the Hills district. Further details and trails maps can be found at the following link.
